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Reference · your own numbers

The engine is generic. Your florist is not.

Every figure this application produces is derived the same way for everybody, which is the point — it is reproducible, and you can read the rule. It is also, for any given studio, wrong in a consistent direction. This florist runs over on stems. Load-in at a historic house always takes an hour longer than anybody declares. Recording an actual is opt-in and off until you type one. Nothing on this page changes a figure.

After an evening you can record what actually happened beside what was derived. This is where those add up. It is not telemetry — nothing is observed, every reading exists because a person typed it — and nothing here is applied to a figure. What it produces is a sentence to argue with.

Why nothing here is applied

A system that adjusts an estimate on one prior event is worse than one that does not adjust at all: it is confident and wrong, and it has spent the trust that makes a deterministic engine worth having. So the threshold is 3 events before a pattern may be claimed, and 10 percent before a drift counts as a direction rather than the ordinary variance of events. Both numbers are judgments, both are written down in the source, and both are there to be argued with.

When adjustments do arrive they will be offered rather than folded in, with the derived figure and the actual one still visible side by side, and a sentence naming the events they came from.